{"id":4356,"date":"2024-04-23T10:30:35","date_gmt":"2024-04-23T08:30:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.projet-cecc.org\/?p=4356"},"modified":"2024-04-23T10:33:01","modified_gmt":"2024-04-23T08:33:01","slug":"reviser-les-courbes-intensite-duree-frequence-dans-un-contexte-de-nouvelle-donne-hydro-climatique-de-la-detection-de-tendances-a-lapplication-operationnelle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.projet-cecc.org\/?p=4356","title":{"rendered":"R\u00e9viser les courbes intensit\u00e9-dur\u00e9e-fr\u00e9quence dans un contexte de nouvelle donne hydro-climatique : de la d\u00e9tection de tendances \u00e0 l\u2019application op\u00e9rationnelle"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Cliquez ici pour acc\u00e9der au .pdf de la publication<\/a><\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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R\u00c9SUM\u00c9<\/h2>

Dans le contexte actuel de transition vers un monde plus chaud, le climat d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui n\u2019est d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus celui d\u2019hier. Parmi les multiples cons\u00e9quences de ce r\u00e9chauffement global, l\u2019intensification des pr\u00e9cipitations pourrait entra\u00eener une augmentation du risque d\u2019inondation, poussant sph\u00e8res op\u00e9rationnelles et acad\u00e9miques \u00e0 travailler conjointement pour adapter les pratiques \u00e0 des conditions hydro-climatique \u00e9volutives. Au centre de cette adaptation se trouve la question de la mod\u00e9lisation statistique des pr\u00e9cipitations et du calcul des courbes intensit\u00e9-dur\u00e9e-fr\u00e9quence qui en r\u00e9sultent, avec deux enjeux partag\u00e9s. D\u2019une part, des recherches
innovantes sont \u00e0 mener pour adapter les outils utilis\u00e9s dans un contexte stationnaire.
D\u2019autre part, les utilisateurs de courbes IDF sont en attente d\u2019une d\u00e9marche leur permettant de poursuivre leur mission dans ce contexte de transition climatique. Nous proposons ici une d\u00e9marche qui r\u00e9pond \u00e0 ces enjeux avec deux objectifs : i) \u00e9tablir un diagnostic robuste de l\u2019intensification des pluies extr\u00eames sur un spectre d\u2019\u00e9chelles spatiales et temporelles, et ii) permettre aux acteurs en charge du dimensionnement d\u2019infrastructures et de la pr\u00e9vention du risque d\u2019inondation de mettre \u00e0 jour leurs pratiques. Le Sahel constitue un cas d\u2019\u00e9tude particuli\u00e8rement pertinent mais la d\u00e9marche expos\u00e9e et les points de discussion qui en d\u00e9coulent se veulent g\u00e9n\u00e9riques.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

ABSTRACT<\/h2>

In the current context of transition to a warmer world, today\u2019s climate is already different from yesterday\u2019s. Among the many consequences of global warming, rainfall intensification may lead to a greater risk of flooding, prompting the operational and academic spheres to work together to adapt practices to changing hydro-climatic conditions. At the heart of this adaptation lies the issue of statistical modelling of rainfall and the calculation of the resulting intensity-duration-frequency curves, with two shared challenges. On the one hand, innovative research needs to be carried out to adapt the tools used in a stationary context. Secondly, users of IDF curves are looking for an approach that will enable them to continue their work in this context of climate transition. We propose here an approach that responds to these challenges with two objectives: i) to establish a robust diagnosis of the intensification of extreme rainfall\u00a0 over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and ii) to enable the actors responsible for infrastructure design and flood risk prevention to update their practices. The Sahel is a particularly relevant case study, but the approach outlined and the ensuing discussion points are intended to be generic.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Cliquez ici pour acc\u00e9der au .pdf de la publication R\u00c9SUM\u00c9 Dans le contexte actuel de transition vers un monde plus chaud, le climat d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui n\u2019est d\u00e9j\u00e0 plus celui d\u2019hier. Parmi<\/p><\/div>\n

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