Overall structure of the CECC project :

The development of tools and products is structured around two main axes: i) a regional axis (basins of the Niger and Senegal rivers in the Sahel; transition zone with the Andes in the southern half of the Amazon) and, ii) a sub-regional axis built around target zones (basins of the Middle Niger and the city of Niamey in Niger, basin of the Middle Senegal and the city of Dakar in Senegal; Beni Valley and Lake Titicaca in the Andes). In these different areas, we aim to develop tools to characterize how global warming and land use changes are likely to induce changes in the hydrological cycle that will modify both flood and drought risks. These modifications will be described in the form of trajectories, probabilized in certain cases, which will allow the managers or designers of infrastructures (current and projected) to adjust their sizing or operation strategies in order to optimize their functioning and minimize their impacts. This is all the more essential as the risk of water shortage pushes the States to build reservoir dams to develop irrigation, while the increase in hydrological risk (due to increased hazards and vulnerabilities) also pushes the planning of new infrastructures (dams, boreholes, or small local developments).

This construction and synthesis work will be based upstream on a reflexive approach to better identify how the tools and products can be really useful to and usable by the various targeted actors. And it will be embodied in a portal that will gather data, tools and products.

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Axis 0 : Reflexive accompaniment

Within the framework of this work axis, the project’s “reflexive accompaniment cell” will be called upon to support the reflexive process of the CECC project’s researchers : on their “products” to be developed within the framework of the project, on their ways of conceiving the targeted “end-users” and of “transferring” their “products”. This accompaniment will take place first in a reflexive process with the researchers and turned towards their practices, then, by associating the “end-users”, on the gaps between the objectives of the researchers and those of the users, and the way to reduce them by a negotiation of the “products” to improve their “transfer”.

The supports for reflexivity and dialogue will be realized collectively, in an evolutionary way. 

This reflective work will be divided into several key moments during the project: 

  • Moment 1 : Reflective work by the project researchers on how each defines what a “product” is, how they conceive of it, how they see this “product” as being useful and to whom. 
  • Moment 2: Organization of dialogue workshops in the project’s target zones, with the objective of establishing a dialogue between researchers and potential “users” around several “products” in order to negotiate their form, the modalities of use (which variables are important for each of them, which interface…). These workshops will aim to validate the products that will be developed in the framework of each activity. 
  • Moment 3 : Accompanying the transfer of the products. The objective is to observe and assist the phase of presentation of the “finished product” to the “users”, their training in the use of this “product”, and the negotiated design between researchers and “users” of the modalities of their dissemination within the network of actors concerned.

Axis 1 : Construction of regional hydro-climatic trajectories 

This axis of work aims at building regional hydro-climatic trajectories, conditioned to different scenarios of climate evolution and land use and intended to feed the actions of the Axis N°2 on the target territories.

  • Disaggregation and debiasing of the CMIP 5 and 6 climate scenarios : Evaluation of the performance of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical period, by comparing them with the data acquired within the framework of the project : correction of biases, comparison of the corrected climate projections of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 exercises over several regions, in particular the Andes, the Brazilian Northeast and West Africa ; and construction of climate scenarios but also quantification of the uncertainties on these scenarios. 
  • Production of evapotranspiration maps;
  • LULC scenarios – land use change : Elaboration of Land Use Land Cover trajectories for the horizon 2050 /2100, criticized and corrected, for the estimation of hydrological trajectories. 
  • Hydroclimatic trajectories in the Sahel – PARFLOW simulations : Quantification of relative changes in water flows and surface and groundwater reserves.
  • Impacts of vegetation changes in the Amazon on tropical Andean precipitation in a future climate change scenario : Development of a methodology taking into account the outputs of the IPCC GCMs (WCRP/CMIP6) of the last 30 years to establish future projections of precipitation in the Andean-Amazon transition region, in a future climate change scenario, for the end of the 21st century.
  • Regional IDF curves : Production of IDF curves in a non-stationary context and evaluation of their potential to provide relevant guides for end users.

Axis 2 : Development of products and demonstrators in the target zones 

This axis of work is based on target territories to address one or more of the 4 major issues of the project (floods, water resources, droughts, management of structures) based on the issues specific to these territories. Each action proposes to develop tools and demonstrators aiming to scenario how these issues could evolve in the future, due to global change, while being sufficiently generic to be adapted to other situations.

Actions in Senegal :

  • Urban flooding in Dakar : defining the conditions for using a hydrological model and a hydraulic model to represent water flows and flooded areas in an urban environment, and using LIDAR to improve the drainage topology (flow directions) in the hydrological model and the representation of flooded areas in the hydraulic model.

  • Urban trajectories in Dakar : analyzing the main physical and social factors of vulnerability to flooding and their economic and social impacts; but also documenting the past dynamics of human settlements, which will allow to propose scenarios, future urban trajectories.

  • Integrated management of structures : managing reservoirs for the satisfaction of multi-criteria objectives (Nexus water-food-energy-ecosystems) in the Senegal River basin. The objective will be to support the development and transfer of a decision support tool to simulate the influence of reservoir management and development scenarios on the NEXUS EEEA, in a context of global change.

Actions au Niger :

  • Green Water Focus –  SiSPAT  model

  • Surface-Subterranean Coupling on the Middle Niger

  • Contribution of new spatial measurements : studying the contribution of new spatial measurements for the monitoring and forecasting of climatic events such as the floods that will take place in Niger in 2020: analysis of the phenomena, forecasting of risks, etc. 

  • PARFLOW simulations zoomed in on Middle Niger : quantifying the relative evolution of surface and groundwater in Middle Niger under surface development scenarios

Actions dans les Andes :

  • Integrated study of resources : Long-term variations in the water resources of Lake Titicaca and the Amazonian high basins. Present and future simulation of the water resources of Lake Titicaca in the West, and of the high Rio Beni in the East.

  • Atmospheric circulation types in the Andean-Amazonian area for precipitation forecasting. Identification of circulation types in the Altiplano region and analyze its relationship with the regional scale (circulation types identified in previous studies). 

Axis 3 : Development of a computer portal 

This line of work aims to develop a computer portal providing access to knowledge (scientific publications in particular), observations and data from different sources (in situ, satellite, combined), as well as products (hydro-climatic model outputs at the appropriate scales for decision-makers and managers; intensity-duration-frequency curves) and demonstrators (risk management or scenarioization tools). This body of information will be documented and tools will be made available to combine its content. The computer portal will be developed during the project and operationalized at the end of the project.

  • Showcasing products to support understanding of the impact and effects of climate change on the water cycle,

  • Exploration of climate/LULC scenarios through one or two interactive demonstrators of two case studies,

  • Discovery and access to products generated by the project